Melbourne Osaka – The Gamble

Race update 3rd April 2025 midday.

The Solomon Islands serve as a gatekeeper for the fleet, posing challenges for the most seasoned sailors. Here, routing software becomes less reliable, with forecasts often failing to materialise. Sailors must shift from data-driven navigation to pure instinct: reading the clouds, looking for currents, and finding their way through the unpredictable, flukey breezes and being prepared for conditions that can change in an instant. 

It was an educated gamble for co-skippers Peter Dowdney and Grant Chipperfield on  Joker X2, the J133 yacht. They threw the dice and chose a more easterly route through Manning Strait. 

“We were hoping for more wind than was forecast in the main strait,” explained Dowdney, as they took advantage of the unique conditions in Manning Strait, where the current flows south to north. 

“There wasn’t as much wind in the passage as forecast,” he added. “But we’ve just made it into open ocean on the northern side of the Solomon Islands and are headed for Osaka!” 

“Currently, we’re doing 7–8 knots SOG with a Code 0 up, loving the freedom to point the boat at the best possible angle,” Dowdney continued. “I see that our fleet-start mates are having a hard time breaking out of the main channel. Not sure how long that will last, but we’ll take this little win that we seem to have earned.” 

Having popped out roughly 135 nautical miles south of the main fleet, Joker X2 is now enjoying fresh winds once again. Will this give Joker X2 the edge on the fleet?  Only time will tell. 

One meteorological factor that remains fairly reliable, however, is the arrival of thunderstorms when CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) levels are high—currently at 1,800. In these conditions, towering cloud columns build during the sweltering heat of the day, only to collapse after nightfall, unleashing torrential rain, sudden gusts, and an electrifying spectacle of sound and light. 

Peter Tardrew aboard Quest reports a day of extremes—shifting from dead calm to 9.5 knots, followed by intense electrical storms overnight. 

It’s a constant balancing act, adjusting between light air and heavier sails, ensuring the delicate light air sails aren’t shredded in an instant, and holding onto hard-fought gains. 

Meanwhile, further down the Australian Coast: 

The Secretary is fixed and back in the race. It’s a reminder of the immense time and effort that goes into competing. While Paul and Dave will take a penalty for their diversion and repairs, they remain firm in their belief that ” Sometimes it’s the journey and not the chocolates that count,” and just getting to the finish is winning. 

Roaring Forty is back on course after completing repairs and waiting out the East Coast Low. 

And then there’s Alive, the Reichel Pugh 66, who started four days ago, four weeks after the first starter and two weeks after the main fleet, is finally stretching its legs. Initially rigged for heavy weather, the crew sailed conservatively to clear the edge of the East Coast Low and what would have been an uncomfortable sea state. 

At last, “it’s Alive” and finding its groove, gliding north riding the northerly currents and deep running on the back of the low, closing in on the fleet, and steadily eating up the miles to Osaka. 

Alive is coming—starting to bite into the distance between them and the leaders, remembering that to win, you need to finish with the lowest elapsed time. 

Melbourne Osaka Media  

Follow the fleet as they race towards Osaka via the race tracker https://race.bluewatertracks.com/2025-melbourne-osaka-cup-double-handed-race 

Learn more about the race and competitors via the Melbourne Osaka Cup website https://melbourneosakacup.com/en/home/ 

Find us on Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/Osakacup2018/ 

About the Melbourne Osaka Cup: 

Melbourne Osaka Double-Handed Yacht Race: The World’s Longest South-to-North Sailing Event, is about to kick off, attracting both international and local sailing talent.   

Competitors sail non-stop and unassisted on their own boats with just two people onboard, navigating four weather systems over 32 to 35 days.   

This event provides a unique opportunity for sailors, many of whom are Corinthian (non-professional and self-funded), to embark on the challenge of a lifetime. While major shorthanded races like the Vendée Globe and Transat Jacques Vabre feature professional teams, large shore crews, and significant budgets, the Melbourne Osaka Race stands apart by offering accessibility to sailors who do not rely on extensive support teams.  

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Lagoon Catamarans are the number 1 in the world, with more navigating the world’s oceans than any other catamaran brand… With a range from 40-78ft in both sailing catamarans and motor yachts, there is the perfect Lagoon for everyone
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Pantaenius_Hallberg Rassy
Lagoon Catamarans are the number 1 in the world, with more navigating the world’s oceans than any other catamaran brand… With a range from 40-78ft in both sailing catamarans and motor yachts, there is the perfect Lagoon for everyone
Race Yachts
JPK 11.80 July 2024